We’re in the last few weeks of the 2025 MLB season and the National League wild‑card picture is as tight as a knotted rope. The New York Mets, Cincinnati Reds and Arizona Diamondbacks sit within a game of each other, and the math that decides who punches their ticket to October hinges on the league’s tiebreaker rules.
All three clubs are fighting for the last spot, but the odds tilt heavily toward the Cincinnati Reds. They are the only one that can control its destiny outright, thanks to superior head‑to‑head records against both New York and Arizona. If a three‑way tie actually materializes, the Reds would be the team celebrating a return to the postseason.
How MLB Handles Three‑Way Tiebreakers
MLB’s expanded playoff format eliminated the dreaded Game 163. Now the league leans on a preset hierarchy of criteria, starting with head‑to‑head performance in the regular season. In a three‑team tie the process works like this:
- Each team’s win‑loss record against the other two tied clubs is calculated.
- The club with the best combined head‑to‑head winning percentage claims the higher seed.
- If two teams remain tied after step one, the two‑team tiebreaker (still head‑to‑head) is applied.
- Should the tie persist, the next step looks at record within the teams’ own divisions.
- Further criteria include intra‑league record and, finally, a random draw.
For our three clubs, the data is crystal clear. The Reds won four of six games against the Mets in the second half of the season, giving them a 4‑2 edge. Against Arizona, the Reds posted a 5‑1 record in their three‑series matchups, while the Diamondbacks and Mets split 3‑3 when they met in May. Those numbers place Cincinnati on top of the head‑to‑head pile, meaning they would clinch the wild‑card slot if the three‑team tie holds.
What the Final Stretch Looks Like for Each Contender
New York Mets
- Current record: 80‑76 (tied with Cincinnati).
- Payroll: roughly $340 million – the highest in the league.
- Schedule: concluding with an away series versus the Chicago Cubs (four games) and a four‑game road swing against the Miami Marlins.
- Recent form: after leading baseball in June at 45‑24, the Mets have gone 35‑52, slipping from frontrunner to a precarious wild‑card chase.
- Key concern: a bruising road trip and stubborn injuries to the pitching staff could tip the balance.
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Current record: 79‑77 (one game behind the Mets/Reds).
- Injuries: lost $210 million ace (Tommy John surgery) and traded several veterans at the deadline.
- Standout player: Corbin Carroll – first D‑backs player ever with a 30‑30 season (HRs and steals).
- Schedule: face the defending champion Los Angeles Dodgers three times in the final ten games, with Ohtani, Snell and Yamamoto on the mound.
- Path: must win at least eight of its last ten games and hope the Mets or Reds stumble.
Cincinnati Reds
- Current record: 80‑76 (tied with the Mets).
- Head‑to‑head advantage: 4‑2 vs. Mets, 5‑1 vs. Diamondbacks.
- Schedule: host the Pittsburgh Pirates for a four‑game set, then finish on the road against the Milwaukee Brewers.
- Remaining games: five at home, four away – a relatively balanced slate.
- Other factors: No major injuries to impact the starting rotation; bullpen depth is solid.
The Reds’ schedule, while not a cakewalk, is arguably the most manageable of the three. Their home finale against the Pirates offers a chance to set the tone, and the Brewers series, though on the road, is against a team fighting its own postseason hopes, which could swing in Cincinnati’s favor.
For the Mets, the road trip to Chicago and Miami means dealing with hostile crowds and hostile ballparks. A slip‑up in any of those four‑game sets could hand the wild‑card to Cincinnati. The Diamondbacks, meanwhile, are staring down a gauntlet of Los Angeles’ best arms. Even a single loss to the Dodgers could shrink an already thin margin.
Beyond the numbers, the human side of the story is compelling. The Mets, once the league’s benchmark team, now face a potential winter of soul‑searching. Their front office has already been whispered about in betting circles, with speculation about managerial changes and roster overhauls. The Diamondbacks, still nursing a broken roster, are riding the inspirational wave generated by Carroll’s historic 30‑30 dash. And the Reds, a franchise that has not seen an October appearance since 2020, finally have a realistic path back to the playoffs.
MLB’s math may have removed the drama of a sudden‑death game, but the statistical dance creates its own tension. Every time a team steps onto the field, the win‑loss column shifts, and the tiebreaker hierarchy reorders itself. In the end, the combination of head‑to‑head superiority, a relatively gentle schedule, and a healthy roster gives the Cincinnati Reds the clearest roadmap to clinch the wild‑card, provided they keep the ball in the opponent’s net during the final stretch.
