The Kansas City Chiefs are staring down a playoff elimination scenario just one year after hoisting the Lombardi Trophy, while the Chicago Bears — once the NFC’s most reliable contender — are now clinging to a slim margin after a crushing Black Friday matchup on November 28, 2025 at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. The Philadelphia Eagles pulled off a 24-17 upset, sending the Bears’ playoff probability tumbling from over 90% to 78%, according to Bovlip.com’s November 29 update. Meanwhile, the Chiefs, at 6-6, sit ninth in the AFC — behind even the Houston Texans — with just a 28% chance of making the postseason after a devastating loss in Dallas.
Chiefs’ Collapse: From Champions to Afterthoughts
It’s hard to believe the same team that won Super Bowl LVIII is now fighting for survival. The Kansas City Chiefs lost their fourth game in five weeks, including a 31-28 defeat to the Dallas Cowboys on Thanksgiving, a game NBC Sports called “a significant defeat in Dallas.” Their offense, once unstoppable, has sputtered without consistent protection for Patrick Mahomes. Their defense, which allowed 28+ points in three straight games, looks like a shell of last year’s unit.
Here’s the brutal truth: To make the playoffs, the Chiefs must win all three remaining games — against the Raiders, Broncos, and Chargers — and hope for at least three losses among the top eight AFC teams. Even then, they’re behind the Houston Texans in the tiebreaker due to a worse conference record (4-4 vs. 5-3). Their season opener in Rio de Janeiro — a 27-24 loss to the Chargers — now looks like the first domino to fall.
Bears’ Black Friday Blowout: A Season Turned on Its Head
The Chicago Bears entered Week 13 with the NFC’s third-best record (9-2) and a near-certain playoff berth. Their defense ranked top-five, Justin Fields was playing the best football of his career, and Matt Eberflus had them playing like a true contender. Then came the Eagles.
Philadelphia’s defense held Fields to just 148 passing yards and forced two critical turnovers. Jalen Hurts, playing with a sprained ankle, threw for two touchdowns and ran for another. The 8-4 Eagles didn’t just win — they announced themselves as a legitimate NFC threat. The Bears’ playoff probability dropped 15 percentage points overnight. They’re now tied with the Green Bay Packers for the NFC’s third seed, but the tiebreaker is razor-thin.
“We thought we were in control,” said Bears linebacker Roquan Smith after the game. “Now we’ve got to fight for every inch. This isn’t over — but it’s a whole new battle.”
AFC Wild-Card Chaos: Eight Teams, One Spot Left
The AFC is a free-for-all. Eight teams have at least a 19% chance of making the playoffs — more than double the NFC’s five. The New England Patriots (10-2) and Denver Broncos (9-2) have secured first-round byes. The Indianapolis Colts (8-3) are the clear third seed.
But the wild-card race? Pure chaos. The Los Angeles Chargers, Jacksonville Jaguars, and Buffalo Bills are all 7-4. The Chargers hold the edge due to a 6-2 AFC record, per Fox Sports. The Jaguars have the tiebreaker over the Bills, but the Bills still control their destiny with a favorable schedule.
The Baltimore Ravens (6-5) have surged into the picture, winning five straight after a 1-4 start. Their defense, once a liability, now ranks fourth in the league. “We turned it around by playing smarter, not harder,” said defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald. “We’re not just surviving anymore — we’re attacking.”
NFC Playoff Projections: Rams Dominate, Bears in Peril
The Los Angeles Rams (9-2) remain the NFC’s top seed, with a 99%+ playoff probability and a likely first-round bye. The Eagles (8-4) now host the 49ers (8-4) in a rematch of last year’s NFC Championship. The Bears (9-3) will host the Packers (8-3-1), but their margin for error is gone. A loss next week to the Lions could drop them to the fifth seed — and a road game against the Seahawks.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5) and Seattle Seahawks (8-3) are locked in a battle for the final home-field spot. The Buccaneers hold the tiebreaker due to a better division record, but Seattle has the easier final stretch.
What’s Next? The Final Push
The regular season ends December 28, 2025. The playoffs begin January 10-12, 2026, with the Super Bowl LX set for February 8, 2026 at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California.
For the Chiefs? Their season hinges on beating the Broncos in Week 16 — a game that now feels like a must-win elimination match. For the Bears? They face the Lions and Vikings in their final two games — two teams with nothing to lose. One slip-up, and their season ends on the road.
It’s been a wild ride. Last season, the Lions and Chiefs both lost on Thanksgiving and missed the playoffs. This year? History might be repeating — just with different names.
Frequently Asked Questions
Can the Kansas City Chiefs still make the playoffs?
Yes — but it’s a long shot. The Chiefs must win all three remaining games and need at least three losses among the top eight AFC teams. They’re currently ninth in the conference, behind the Texans due to a worse conference record (4-4 vs. 5-3). Even with a perfect finish, they’d need tiebreaker help from the Chargers, Jaguars, or Bills to sneak in.
Why did the Chicago Bears’ playoff probability drop so sharply?
Their 24-17 loss to the Eagles on November 28 dropped them from 9-2 to 9-3 and cost them a potential top-two seed. The Eagles now hold the head-to-head tiebreaker, and with the Packers and 49ers both at 8-4, the Bears’ path to a first-round bye is nearly closed. Their remaining schedule includes two tough divisional games — against Detroit and Minnesota — where a single loss could send them to the road.
Who are the top contenders in the AFC wild-card race?
The Chargers (7-4), Jaguars (7-4), and Bills (7-4) are locked in a three-team tie. The Chargers hold the top wild-card spot due to a 6-2 AFC record. The Jaguars lead the Bills on conference record (5-3 vs. 4-4). The Ravens (6-5) are just one game back and could jump into the mix if they win out — especially if the Bills lose to the Dolphins in Week 17.
What’s the significance of the NFL’s international game in Brazil?
The Chiefs’ season-opening 27-24 loss to the Chargers at Estádio do Maracanã in Rio de Janeiro on September 6, 2025, set the tone for a turbulent year. It’s rare for a defending champion to lose its opener abroad, and the team never fully recovered its rhythm. The travel, time zone shifts, and lack of home-field energy may have contributed to their late-season struggles — a cautionary tale for teams playing in international games.
How does the NFC playoff bracket look now?
The Rams (9-2) get a first-round bye. The Eagles (8-4) host the 49ers (8-4), the Bears (9-3) host the Packers (8-3-1), and the Buccaneers (6-5) host the Seahawks (8-3). The Bears’ home-field advantage is now in jeopardy — if they lose to Detroit next week, they could drop to the fifth seed and face the Seahawks on the road instead.
When is Super Bowl LX, and where is it being held?
Super Bowl LX is scheduled for February 8, 2026, at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. It will be the first Super Bowl hosted at the venue since Super Bowl 50 in 2016. The NFC has hosted the last three Super Bowls — a streak that could extend if either the Rams or Eagles reach the final.
